The past couple posts on the excellent Financial Armageddon blog (which supports the Panzer book Financial Armageddon
) have been talking about the feeling a financial meltdown is coming. Many sites and theories use charts, graphs and historical data that all point to the crisis that is coming. On October 27, Mr. Panzer posted an email from a lady without serious economic training or experience who just feels we’re living in an economy and financial construct that just isn’t sustainable (my words, not hers).
She’s right. It amazes me how few people see the current situation clearly, with its subprime mortgage fiasco, derivatives market, collapsing dollar and credit addictions and doesn’t see that it has to correct and collapse. That more and more people without a lot of technical knowledge in the finanacial sector start to feel collapse coming is disconcerting. It means the rumbling that presages the quake has started, and everyone is starting to feel the shaking, even though many analysts are so deep in denial or data that they can’t believe it’s really coming.
Here’s what rational thought tells us:
1. When you get something for nothing, someone’s paying the bill. In the case of our credit economy, for every dollar borrowed, one is lent by someone. Eventually, that someone decides not to lend anymore, at least at the old interest rate.
2. Prices and “values” can’t keep rising forever. There are otherwise intelligent, rational people who truly believe that the “value” of their home will keep rising indefinitely, and their $245,000 home that they purchased a few years ago for $125,000 will eventually be able to be sold for $500,000 or even $1 Million. My question is always “your real estate’s value has doubled in the past few years. Has your income? If not, do you think that people who buy million dollar homes will want yours? At that point, it usually dawns on them that prices can’t keep going up indefinitely.
3. Past performance is no guarantee of future earnings. The world is so profoundly different than it was even 20 years ago. The way and speed at which information travels (as well as armies and germs too, by the way) are so accelerated that the United States is no longer immune from trouble it has been insulated from in the past. Bad stuff and people can get here pretty fast, though many would say both are here in great abundance already.
Since starting WhatComesNext, I’ve been pretty conservative, using links to point the way to ideas I find compelling and connected as they relate to what life is going to be like in the near future. From here, that’s going to change, and I’m going to start laying out in greater detail exactly what I think is coming for us. I’ll backup what I say with links, history and evidence, but will not restrain from telling you the reader, exactly what I think could happen in given circumstances. The future is not set in stone, but in many ways, the direction the road we’re traveling is clear.
It will always be the goal of WhatComesNext.net to give you a roadmap.
Posted in
Economy
Globally, the West continues to somewhat quietly march toward war with Iran. Instituting more sanctions against Iranian companies and military/political organizations, the U.S. continues to demand that Iran give up all nuclear development. The recent Israeli attack on a Syrian site has drawn a deafening silence from all parties, suggesting to many analysts and observers that something seriously wicked was going on there, and that the Israelis (with approval of the U.S.) did the world a huge service. Reports from Israel say that elite commando units infiltrated the remote facility after tracking a load of “cement” from North Korea to the site and brought back soil samples that confirmed nuclear materials present. Then, it was missiles away, and a report in The Spectator suggests we came very close to World War that day.
The lack of any kind of meaningful protest or response from Syria or Iran virtually confirms the “gotcha.” Perhaps a triumph of intelligence after a number of failures over the past few years.
The U.S., Britain, France and Germany will got to war with Islamic forces in the Middle East, and I believe it will happen before George Bush leaves office. It will only be the latest in a war of the Christian World versus the Islamic World (that fight’s been going on for a LONG time), but this time it’s unclear which side the Russians will land on. History would tend to predict Russia being on our side, current political economic trends (energy) and their current stance suggest they would support the Iranians and Syrians. But once the shooting starts, the Russians have a habit of moving to the side of the winner. If the Iranians think they’ve got the Russians in their pocket, they need to look at the deal Stalin made with Hitler. And I believe that one was in writing, too.
So, we’re going to fight it out with the Iranians after all. It’s a fight many people wanted in 1979 when they took American hostages in Tehran. It’s almost 30 years later, and could have been avoided, but won’t be.
God be with us.
Technorati : Iran, Syria, War, World War III
Posted in
Peak Oil,
US,
War
The past week has been a difficult one for the MacLeods, but not as tough as it was for some.
My family was affected by the California Wildfires, my parents losing their home early Monday morning. The first reverse-911 call came in at about midnight, suggesting they prepare to evacuate. Two hours later, the call came – evacuate immediately. They did. Probably in the next couple hours, the home my father designed and built on a scenic hillside outside San Diego in a small gated community was consumed by fire so quickly nothing identifiable remained. Everything burned, melted and congealed into a pile of rubble. It was truly amazing.
But all are okay, the house and contents insured and life goes on. For them, at least. For those not insured or prepared (and there are many, as we will hear about in the coming weeks) life is difficult right now. Some overly optimistic watchers are actually excited, saying the disaster will create a huge demand for new housing, with new jobs, materials purchased and will result in a new California real estate boom. Their theory is that the excess supply of California housing just got burned down.
Sadly, that’s not true. The real estate inventory problem in California isn’t one of structures, it’s one of credit. The subprime meltdown is shutting off the financing for overpriced-underafforded housing. There aren’t too many houses on the market, there’s a shortage of buyers who though unable to truly afford them, were previously able to finance them. Big difference. I think a lot of burned down houses will stay down for the count. All won’t be rebuilt right away.
Rather than saving the California economy, I fear these wildfires will deal it a harsh blow.
Technorati : California, Wildfires
Posted in
Economy,
Global Warming,
Society,
US
Those familiar with prophesy and the Book of Revelation know that an apocalyptic battle between "Gog" and "Magog" will be the final conflict pitting good against evil. At least that’s what many believe.
Now, the Israeli press and even (according to some) U.S. President George Bush are using language and ideas that bring this apocalypse to mind. Two television channels in Israel have even aired maps showing the Gog v. Magog matchup that would be World War III.
Our side: The U.S., Israel, Britain, France and Germany.
Their side: Iran, Russia, China, Syria and North Korea. Bush is being very clear that a nuclear Iran means war. This all is, in a word, insane. But insane has ruled before, and will most certainly rule again. In fact, with talk like this, war is inevitable. The time to prepare to survive and thrive even if our way of life disappears is now.
Right now.
Tags: World War III, Bush, Iran, Nuclear Iran, Russia, China
Posted in
US,
War