Is it possible? Probable?
At the risk of seeing bears in the face of a herd of bulls, here’s a theory:
If we see a huge Christmas retail season (both brick and mortar and online), don’t be surprised to see equally huge default rates come the end of January, February and March, as the balances created in the spirit of the season go 30, 60 and 90 days past due. Just ask yourself, would someone about to have their mortgage forclosed on be more likely to scrimp at the holidays, or just blow the rest of their (never to be repaid) credit card’s avalable balance on a feel-good?
I think the answer is clear on that one, because too many of us don’t treat money and avalable credit as the same thing. In fact they’re not the same thing at all, but should be treated the same. If one is frugal, they are frugal with credit as well as with cash.
Let’s face it, even the naysayers are admitting real estate’s a problem. Prices are falling everywhere, and most intelligent observers admit there is inflation in our economy. The number of people on the edge of foreclosure, wondering how much longer they will be living in the house they could never afford in the first place, have to be figuring that once there’s a mortgage foreclosure on their credit report, some credit card problems they’ve walked away from can’t add more insult to their FICO. My opinion is there will be many cards that default at the credit limit, adding even more fuel to the banking and financial industry’s woes.
Technorati Tags: Depression, Economics, Recession
Posted in
Economy
Well, I suppose it’s only fair. I mean, we did it to them.
Anyone who doubts that Ronald Reagan killed the “Evil Empire,” just wasn’t paying attention in the 80s. But Reagan didn’t do the job with missiles and tanks…Well, he did, but not how you think. He talked so tough and rattled the American sabers so loudly, that the USSR had no choice but to spend every dime they had to keep up. It was more than they could avoid.
Now, signs point to Putin taking a page from a history of America’s Reagan years, and doing it to us. Payback’s a bitch, isn’t it?
Technorati Tags: Depression, Economics, Putin, Russia, War
Posted in
Economy,
War
Most peak-oil experts talk about the fact that great changes are coming to our way of life when cheap petroleum products no longer drive our Wal-Mart/Big Box gas guzzling ways. They talk about getting by with less, reverting to older modes of transportation and eating more locally-grown food. But, those suggest a fairly comfortable, if incovenient, more rural lifestyle, so much so, many readers say “good! that’s what we need!”
Paul Eccleston however, presents a much more dangerous possibility, in which food and water are in short supply, and billions face death in the dismantling of our oil-dependent lifestyle.
Richard Heinberg, one of the world’s leading experts on oil reserves, warned that the lives of billions of people were threatened by a food crisis caused by our dependence on dwindling supplies of fossil fuels.
Higher oil prices, the loss of farmland to biofuel crops, climate change and the loss of natural resources would combine with population growth to create an unprecedented food shortage, he claimed.
The only way to avoid a world food crisis was a planned and rapid reduction of fossil fuel use – oil, coal and gas – and a switch to more organic methods in the growing and delivery of food. It would mean a return to living off the land not seen for 150 years.
Unfortunately, a necessary move like this would be, at best, difficult even with everyone pulling the same way. As long as the few who greatly profit from our oil-dependency and the scarcity that’s gathering are convincing when they tell American masses that there’s no real problem, those masses won’t want to make the sacrifices necessary to eventually save ourselves.
Technorati Tags: Food, Peak Oil
Posted in
Peak Oil
US Headed for recession, says The Market Oracle, and it’s hard to argue. Apparently, on November 15th, the Federal Reserve loaned more money to banks than in any other day in history. That’s a bad sign, because:
1. It means the banks need the money to cover bad loans.
2. Ben Bernanke doesn’t know what he’s doing.
Technorati : Depression, Economy, Recession
Posted in
Economy
Compelling (in its simplicity and no bullshit truth) Recession 2009 – Depression 2009, from Fiend’s Superbear Page also compelling in its simplicity and truth. Though Aubie Baltin could use spellcheck and/or an editor, the piece is a shining example of unvarnished truth. And by the way, the “spellcheck and/or editor” comment is irony, as most all spellchecked and edited mass media today doesn’t begin to approach the truth of these words.
Add to this, Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests calls Ben Bernanke a “fool” and says the guy doesn’t get finance, money or even general economics. Watching him get schooled (I’d say “smacked”) by Ron Paul recently, I’d have to agree.
The short story on this is, we’ve got a heap of economic troubles piling up and no talent in a position to deal with it.
Technorati Tags: Ben Bernanke, Depression, Economics, Interest Rates, Recession, Ron Paul
Posted in
Economy,
Politics
I like Jim Kunstler. He’s a grouch. He’s grumpy, and yes, can seem to be a bit of what you could call a…Well, I won’t use the word, but you know the one of which I speak. And yes, his website, kunstler.com can be (to the uninformed) a bit tiresome.
Yes, we get it. You hate contemporary American culture, with our “mcmansions” and Wal-Mart and driving cars everywhere. We get that. And we know it’s all based on the availability of cheap petroleum (mostly gas and plastic). But Jim, you’re so angry! It’s almost as if you WANT it to all come crashing down.
I can see someone (again, an ill-informed someone) saying that, but they would be wrong. There are plenty of other intelligent experts who also know what’s going on (and what’s going to happen) but decide to be much more pleasant, friendly and comfortable to correspond with. The difference is, those other experts, who may or may not get more party invitations, probably aren’t taken as seriously as the strident Mr. Kunstler, because when you read Jim’s work, he has an intensity and confidence in his positions that is very compelling, and when you’re talking about subjects as serious as the future of our society and the survival of we individuals, you need to be compelling and sometimes even angry.
Of course, those who really don’t want to face the reality of the situation will see Jim Kunstler as more Rasputin than they’re comfortable with, but so what? Truth is truth, whether the right people hear it or not. On Kunstler’s newly redesigned website, he says:
Please note that I am leaving AOL for another email program and will not post the new address on my website. My burden of correspondence has reached the ‘red line,’ unfortunately, and there is no other solution to the problem.
Of course, there’s a solution. First of all, it would be getting rid of AOL, and using some tools to better manage larger volumes of email. There are those who deal with a lot more data than Kunstler, and separating himself from the reality of today, just makes him seem more like a neo-Luddite, which makes the interpretation that he wants it all to crash that much more believable. Living in today’s world and being able to adapt his message and methods to the current technology would only help spread his message, and that would be good for all of us.
Good for all of us? Why? Because his message is directly on-target, despite the strident tone the website takes, and that is everything.
Kunstler is focused on one message: The times in which we live are coming to an end, and what’s next will blow your mind. With this website, I try to convey that same message. WhatComesNext.com is more about looking at the different paths our society may end up taking. Kunstler is far more focused, and definite about what will happen. He speaks with a knowing that is hard to argue with (which you shouldn’t, because he’s right).
Read Kunstler.com every week. Don’t be put off by the direct way he communicates – it’s important. And for goodness’ sake, don’t email him.
Technorati Tags: Kunstler, Peak Oil
Posted in
Peak Oil,
Society
It’ll be either unexpectedly great, about the same as normal, or really bad. I’d say there’s a 33% chance of each. How’s that for making predictions?
The guys doing work in what they call “predictive linguistics,” in which computers scan user-generated content on the web and makes predictions based on how the language changes, believe that human culture telegraphs its intentions through language shifts that are observable. Whether you believe they can tell the future by reading the tea leaves of the net or not is your business, but they’ve had some interesting “hits.” More information about this at the Half Past Human website. Frequent analysis and discussion of the ongoing predictive linguistic work happens at UrbanSurvival, so much so, that I have a hunch that George Ure, UrbanSurvival’s editor has some stake in it.
At any rate, recent predictive linguistic work is apparently calling for an “emotional release” period (read something bad happening) commencing in late November of this year, which I would imagine, could mean bad news for the Christmas Shopping season. Even if no terrorist attack, natural disaster or huge financial credit writedown trashes consumer confidence, it’s already pretty low. Job layoffs abound, the real estate bubble continues to deflate and the dollar is tanking. Things are looking pretty grim. There’s quite a case to be made that this year, Kris Kringle’s simply staying at the North Pole.
On the other hand, we Americans are, some would say incredibly optimistic. Many call it “living in denial,” but however you characterize it, sometimes we simply say “damn the torpedoes, full speed (buy another plasma TV) ahead!” So the holiday season could really rock, despite the distress the financial system is currently experiencing.
Or, a combination of the good and evil listed above could combine for a “normal” holiday buying season. The problem is, until we face the reality of the distress our economic system is in, the bubble continues to inflate and the corrective explosion will only be larger.
So, from me to you, Happy Holidays.
Technorati Tags: Depression, Economy, Predictive Linguistics, Recession
Posted in
Economy,
Society
Jim Sinclair has this advice for discussing what’s going to happen with friends:
Do not try to convince your friend that gold is right, the dollar is wrong, or your favorite gold shares is good for them. You gain nothing, and stand to say goodbye to your friend, whether you be right or wrong.
He’s absolutely right. Furthermore, when you talk about the dark future we’re seeing coming upon us, it’s worth some thought about who in your family you discuss the situation with, as well. Now, of course you should do what is necessary to secure your family’s financial situation, but be careful about how that information is communicated.
In the couple years leading up to Y2K, I became an advocate of updating your hardware and software (usually by going to Apple products) to avoid computer meltdowns when the year turned from 1999 to 2000. As the most tech-savvy person in my circle, since I had my first computer in 1981, and was online heavily( and expensively) via CompuServe in 1982, I had the best perspective on the problem. And there was a problem. My family business’ software crashed under Y2K testing, confirming what I knew about code written by programmers (of which I was one) in the 80s. Much of it would not calculate dates properly, thanks to the memory-saving habit of using only two digits to refer to the year, and that was a problem.
Seeing the way the public and government viewed the issue (as a mostly non-issue), I decided to make sure I was stocked up with water, some extra food, medical supplies and other staples necessary to weather the interruptions in basic services that could happen if things went very bad. I didn’t expect armageddon, but knew there was the specter of a difficult time lurking. So I stocked up a little. And happily, needed none of it.
A family member who even to this day knows nothing about computers, despite the fact I bought him a complete system and have provided much tech support, has always ridiculed those steps, since he “knew” nothing was going to happen. He doesn’t understand, after some 9 years of almost daily computer use, the concept of dragging files into a folder to unclutter his desktop, but he “knew” that two-digit year codes wouldn’t be a problem for old software running all sorts of computer devices. In reality, a Y2K meltdown was avoided through a massive code-patching campaign as well as a huge computer-upgrade cycle that created billions of dollars of wealth for the people who owned hardware and sotware manufacturers. We dodged a bullet that day, to be sure. Unfortunately, to people ignorant of the situation, “nothing happened. It was all hype.”
Looking back, I should have stocked up and kept my opinions to myself. There is seldom any appreciation when that stocking up is done to, in part, protect those who don’t believe such steps are necessary. Creating a situation in which that lack of appreciation is shown can hurt family relationships. Sure, you should be able to talk about these things with those closest to you (certainly some people can), but it’s not a sure thing.
So, heed Mr. Sinclair’s advice with regard to trying to convince friends…And sometimes that extends to family.
Posted in
Economy,
US