Christmas Shopping Records – First Quarter Hard Economic Bust

Is it possible? Probable?

At the risk of seeing bears in the face of a herd of bulls, here’s a theory:

If we see a huge Christmas retail season (both brick and mortar and online), don’t be surprised to see equally huge default rates come the end of January, February and March, as the balances created in the spirit of the season go 30, 60 and 90 days past due. Just ask yourself, would someone about to have their mortgage forclosed on be more likely to scrimp at the holidays, or just blow the rest of their (never to be repaid) credit card’s avalable balance on a feel-good?

I think the answer is clear on that one, because too many of us don’t treat money and avalable credit as the same thing. In fact they’re not the same thing at all, but should be treated the same. If one is frugal, they are frugal with credit as well as with cash.

Let’s face it, even the naysayers are admitting real estate’s a problem. Prices are falling everywhere, and most intelligent observers admit there is inflation in our economy. The number of people on the edge of foreclosure, wondering how much longer they will be living in the house they could never afford in the first place, have to be figuring that once there’s a mortgage foreclosure on their credit report, some credit card problems they’ve walked away from can’t add more insult to their FICO. My opinion is there will be many cards that default at the credit limit, adding even more fuel to the banking and financial industry’s woes.

Technorati Tags: Depression, Economics, Recession

The USSR Plan to Bankrupt the US

Well, I suppose it’s only fair. I mean, we did it to them.

Anyone who doubts that Ronald Reagan killed the “Evil Empire,” just wasn’t paying attention in the 80s. But Reagan didn’t do the job with missiles and tanks…Well, he did, but not how you think. He talked so tough and rattled the American sabers so loudly, that the USSR had no choice but to spend every dime they had to keep up. It was more than they could avoid.

Now, signs point to Putin taking a page from a history of America’s Reagan years, and doing it to us. Payback’s a bitch, isn’t it?

Technorati Tags: Depression, Economics, Putin, Russia, War

An Apocalyptic View of the Future

Most peak-oil experts talk about the fact that great changes are coming to our way of life when cheap petroleum products no longer drive our Wal-Mart/Big Box gas guzzling ways. They talk about getting by with less, reverting to older modes of transportation and eating more locally-grown food. But, those suggest a fairly comfortable, if incovenient, more rural lifestyle, so much so, many readers say “good! that’s what we need!”

Paul Eccleston however, presents a much more dangerous possibility, in which food and water are in short supply, and billions face death in the dismantling of our oil-dependent lifestyle.

Richard Heinberg, one of the world’s leading experts on oil reserves, warned that the lives of billions of people were threatened by a food crisis caused by our dependence on dwindling supplies of fossil fuels.

Higher oil prices, the loss of farmland to biofuel crops, climate change and the loss of natural resources would combine with population growth to create an unprecedented food shortage, he claimed.

The only way to avoid a world food crisis was a planned and rapid reduction of fossil fuel use – oil, coal and gas – and a switch to more organic methods in the growing and delivery of food. It would mean a return to living off the land not seen for 150 years.

Unfortunately, a necessary move like this would be, at best, difficult even with everyone pulling the same way. As long as the few who greatly profit from our oil-dependency and the scarcity that’s gathering are convincing when they tell American masses that there’s no real problem, those masses won’t want to make the sacrifices necessary to eventually save ourselves.

Technorati Tags: Food, Peak Oil

More Recession Predictions

US Headed for recession, says The Market Oracle, and it’s hard to argue. Apparently, on November 15th, the Federal Reserve loaned more money to banks than in any other day in history. That’s a bad sign, because:

1. It means the banks need the money to cover bad loans.

2. Ben Bernanke doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Technorati : Depression, Economy, Recession

Recession in 2008, Depression in 2009

Compelling (in its simplicity and no bullshit truth) Recession 2009 – Depression 2009, from Fiend’s Superbear Page also compelling in its simplicity and truth. Though Aubie Baltin could use spellcheck and/or an editor, the piece is a shining example of unvarnished truth. And by the way, the “spellcheck and/or editor” comment is irony, as most all spellchecked and edited mass media today doesn’t begin to approach the truth of these words.

Add to this, Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests calls Ben Bernanke a “fool” and says the guy doesn’t get finance, money or even general economics. Watching him get schooled (I’d say “smacked”) by Ron Paul recently, I’d have to agree.

The short story on this is, we’ve got a heap of economic troubles piling up and no talent in a position to deal with it.

Technorati Tags: Ben Bernanke, Depression, Economics, Interest Rates, Recession, Ron Paul