A Review of Kunstler.com

I like Jim Kunstler. He’s a grouch. He’s grumpy, and yes, can seem to be a bit of what you could call a…Well, I won’t use the word, but you know the one of which I speak. And yes, his website, kunstler.com can be (to the uninformed) a bit tiresome.

Yes, we get it. You hate contemporary American culture, with our “mcmansions” and Wal-Mart and driving cars everywhere. We get that. And we know it’s all based on the availability of cheap petroleum (mostly gas and plastic). But Jim, you’re so angry! It’s almost as if you WANT it to all come crashing down.

I can see someone (again, an ill-informed someone) saying that, but they would be wrong. There are plenty of other intelligent experts who also know what’s going on (and what’s going to happen) but decide to be much more pleasant, friendly and comfortable to correspond with. The difference is, those other experts, who may or may not get more party invitations, probably aren’t taken as seriously as the strident Mr. Kunstler, because when you read Jim’s work, he has an intensity and confidence in his positions that is very compelling, and when you’re talking about subjects as serious as the future of our society and the survival of we individuals, you need to be compelling and sometimes even angry.

Of course, those who really don’t want to face the reality of the situation will see Jim Kunstler as more Rasputin than they’re comfortable with, but so what? Truth is truth, whether the right people hear it or not. On Kunstler’s newly redesigned website, he says:

Please note that I am leaving AOL for another email program and will not post the new address on my website. My burden of correspondence has reached the ‘red line,’ unfortunately, and there is no other solution to the problem.

Of course, there’s a solution. First of all, it would be getting rid of AOL, and using some tools to better manage larger volumes of email. There are those who deal with a lot more data than Kunstler, and separating himself from the reality of today, just makes him seem more like a neo-Luddite, which makes the interpretation that he wants it all to crash that much more believable. Living in today’s world and being able to adapt his message and methods to the current technology would only help spread his message, and that would be good for all of us.

Good for all of us? Why? Because his message is directly on-target, despite the strident tone the website takes, and that is everything.

Kunstler is focused on one message: The times in which we live are coming to an end, and what’s next will blow your mind. With this website, I try to convey that same message. WhatComesNext.com is more about looking at the different paths our society may end up taking. Kunstler is far more focused, and definite about what will happen. He speaks with a knowing that is hard to argue with (which you shouldn’t, because he’s right).

Read Kunstler.com every week. Don’t be put off by the direct way he communicates – it’s important. And for goodness’ sake, don’t email him.

Technorati Tags: Kunstler, Peak Oil

The Economic Outlook for Christmas, 2007

It’ll be either unexpectedly great, about the same as normal, or really bad. I’d say there’s a 33% chance of each. How’s that for making predictions?

The guys doing work in what they call “predictive linguistics,” in which computers scan user-generated content on the web and makes predictions based on how the language changes, believe that human culture telegraphs its intentions through language shifts that are observable. Whether you believe they can tell the future by reading the tea leaves of the net or not is your business, but they’ve had some interesting “hits.” More information about this at the Half Past Human website. Frequent analysis and discussion of the ongoing predictive linguistic work happens at UrbanSurvival, so much so, that I have a hunch that George Ure, UrbanSurvival’s editor has some stake in it.

At any rate, recent predictive linguistic work is apparently calling for an “emotional release” period (read something bad happening) commencing in late November of this year, which I would imagine, could mean bad news for the Christmas Shopping season. Even if no terrorist attack, natural disaster or huge financial credit writedown trashes consumer confidence, it’s already pretty low. Job layoffs abound, the real estate bubble continues to deflate and the dollar is tanking. Things are looking pretty grim. There’s quite a case to be made that this year, Kris Kringle’s simply staying at the North Pole.

On the other hand, we Americans are, some would say incredibly optimistic. Many call it “living in denial,” but however you characterize it, sometimes we simply say “damn the torpedoes, full speed (buy another plasma TV) ahead!” So the holiday season could really rock, despite the distress the financial system is currently experiencing.

Or, a combination of the good and evil listed above could combine for a “normal” holiday buying season. The problem is, until we face the reality of the distress our economic system is in, the bubble continues to inflate and the corrective explosion will only be larger.

So, from me to you, Happy Holidays.

Technorati Tags: Depression, Economy, Predictive Linguistics, Recession

Talking About the Coming Crash With Friends and Family

Jim Sinclair has this advice for discussing what’s going to happen with friends:

Do not try to convince your friend that gold is right, the dollar is wrong, or your favorite gold shares is good for them. You gain nothing, and stand to say goodbye to your friend, whether you be right or wrong.

He’s absolutely right. Furthermore, when you talk about the dark future we’re seeing coming upon us, it’s worth some thought about who in your family you discuss the situation with, as well. Now, of course you should do what is necessary to secure your family’s financial situation, but be careful about how that information is communicated.

In the couple years leading up to Y2K, I became an advocate of updating your hardware and software (usually by going to Apple products) to avoid computer meltdowns when the year turned from 1999 to 2000. As the most tech-savvy person in my circle, since I had my first computer in 1981, and was online heavily( and expensively) via CompuServe in 1982, I had the best perspective on the problem. And there was a problem. My family business’ software crashed under Y2K testing, confirming what I knew about code written by programmers (of which I was one) in the 80s. Much of it would not calculate dates properly, thanks to the memory-saving habit of using only two digits to refer to the year, and that was a problem.

Seeing the way the public and government viewed the issue (as a mostly non-issue), I decided to make sure I was stocked up with water, some extra food, medical supplies and other staples necessary to weather the interruptions in basic services that could happen if things went very bad. I didn’t expect armageddon, but knew there was the specter of a difficult time lurking. So I stocked up a little. And happily, needed none of it.

A family member who even to this day knows nothing about computers, despite the fact I bought him a complete system and have provided much tech support, has always ridiculed those steps, since he “knew” nothing was going to happen. He doesn’t understand, after some 9 years of almost daily computer use, the concept of dragging files into a folder to unclutter his desktop, but he “knew” that two-digit year codes wouldn’t be a problem for old software running all sorts of computer devices. In reality, a Y2K meltdown was avoided through a massive code-patching campaign as well as a huge computer-upgrade cycle that created billions of dollars of wealth for the people who owned hardware and sotware manufacturers. We dodged a bullet that day, to be sure. Unfortunately, to people ignorant of the situation, “nothing happened. It was all hype.”

Looking back, I should have stocked up and kept my opinions to myself. There is seldom any appreciation when that stocking up is done to, in part, protect those who don’t believe such steps are necessary. Creating a situation in which that lack of appreciation is shown can hurt family relationships. Sure, you should be able to talk about these things with those closest to you (certainly some people can), but it’s not a sure thing.

So, heed Mr. Sinclair’s advice with regard to trying to convince friends…And sometimes that extends to family.

“The Whole Economic System is Subprime”

On the lower right-hand side of this page, you will see that WhatComesNext.net supports Ron Paul for President in 2008. There is no better justification for this, than this short video during the testimony of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee on November 8th.

I suggest you watch it, and when you do, you’ll see that Ron Paul has a precise grasp on the problems in our system right now. It’s a grasp that none of the other candidates for the White House seem to want to talk about, and whether that reluctance is because they don’t understand the situation, or because they don’t believe there’s anything they can do about it, their refusal to address the issue is a litmus test that takes them out of the running for my vote.

French President gets Sar-Kozy with Bush

Now that Tony Blair’s gone, Nicolas Sarkozy, the new French President is George W. Bush’s favorite trans-Atlantic friend. It’s not that we’re on the outs with the Brits, it’s just that the new pro-American French President is saying the things Bush wants to hear, mainly that Iran cannot be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. Sure, they say, peaceful nuclear energy is fine, just no bombs. To which Iran will continue to say:

"Screw you."

But that’s not going to happen, because when it comes right down to it, the West doesn’t want to be friends with Iran. We’re willing to tolerate them if they seem to clearly understand their "place," but we don’t want to be friends. The embassy takeover is still way too fresh in our minds, it was unresolved and there are large segments of the population that can, when it comes to Iran easily go from "live and let live" to "bomb the crap out of them." The fuse for many Americans is short.

At the same time, while we’re basking in the warm camaraderie of the new American-Franco lovefest, we have to remember that for the past several hundred years, one of France’s priorities has always been the tweaking of British noses, and vice-versa. The two countries, separated by a fairly narrow channel, and vastly different languages, have a seriously neurotic relationship.  While Bush and Sarkozy were playing footsie at the White House today, all I could think was jeesh, W, didn’t you attend any history classes? Don’t you understand the French don’t consider us equal, they’re just always using us to get at the Brits? God, I wish you’d learned something in one of the eight grades you finished.

The speeches today contained references to how the French had been instrumental in helping us secure our independence. Yea! From Britain! Think that had anything to do with it? In fact, the first recognition of the United States’ new flag came in 1789, when a French warship, the Bonhomme Richard fired her guns in salute to the American warship Ranger, commanded by John Paul Jones. Believe me, that was as much to tweak the Brits as it was to honor the Americans. But, in this day of religious and cultural warfare, we should take what help and support we can get, so it’s Viva le France!