The Economic Outlook for Christmas, 2007

It’ll be either unexpectedly great, about the same as normal, or really bad. I’d say there’s a 33% chance of each. How’s that for making predictions?

The guys doing work in what they call “predictive linguistics,” in which computers scan user-generated content on the web and makes predictions based on how the language changes, believe that human culture telegraphs its intentions through language shifts that are observable. Whether you believe they can tell the future by reading the tea leaves of the net or not is your business, but they’ve had some interesting “hits.” More information about this at the Half Past Human website. Frequent analysis and discussion of the ongoing predictive linguistic work happens at UrbanSurvival, so much so, that I have a hunch that George Ure, UrbanSurvival’s editor has some stake in it.

At any rate, recent predictive linguistic work is apparently calling for an “emotional release” period (read something bad happening) commencing in late November of this year, which I would imagine, could mean bad news for the Christmas Shopping season. Even if no terrorist attack, natural disaster or huge financial credit writedown trashes consumer confidence, it’s already pretty low. Job layoffs abound, the real estate bubble continues to deflate and the dollar is tanking. Things are looking pretty grim. There’s quite a case to be made that this year, Kris Kringle’s simply staying at the North Pole.

On the other hand, we Americans are, some would say incredibly optimistic. Many call it “living in denial,” but however you characterize it, sometimes we simply say “damn the torpedoes, full speed (buy another plasma TV) ahead!” So the holiday season could really rock, despite the distress the financial system is currently experiencing.

Or, a combination of the good and evil listed above could combine for a “normal” holiday buying season. The problem is, until we face the reality of the distress our economic system is in, the bubble continues to inflate and the corrective explosion will only be larger.

So, from me to you, Happy Holidays.

Technorati Tags: Depression, Economy, Predictive Linguistics, Recession

Posted in Economy, Society