What Comes Next? » Archive of 'Aug, 2008'

The Economic Meltdown

Is in progress.

Jim Sinclair at Jim Sinclair’s Mineset and his group are doing everything they can to wake as many readers of his site up to this fact, and giving straightforward advice about how to save your ASSets, and preserve your financial future.

In the words of Mr. Sinclair:

Dear Extended Family,

This situation is financially critical, having no practical strategy or plan to intercede in order to save us from witnessing a total systemic meltdown.

Have you:

1. Taken delivery of paper shares of your investment companies of any nature?
2. Have you opted to become a direct registration book entry at the transfer agent of your investment where possible?
3. Have you protected your retirement accounts by doing number 1 or 2 with both your Trust’s name and your retirement account identification?
4. Is your retirement account held in true custodial-ship?

Plus, 8 more questions you must ask yourself about your investments.

Read and take heed.

Posted in Economy
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Am I Rich?

mccain obama debate rick warren - Google Image SearchOne of the topics of the recent debate between John McCain and Barack Obama at Rick Warren’s church was “how much money do you have to make to be rich?” Predictably, the candidates differed dramatically in their answers. McCain said “$5 Million,” and Obama replied “If you’re making more than $250,000, you’re doing pretty well.”

Both answers were ridiculous. In a piece from NPR’s Day to Day, available via podcast here, Jared Bernstein points out that you can’t label someone as “rich” with just an income figure. Where they live makes all the difference. He’s exactly right.

At this point, our economy and culture is most certainly NOT in a position to start disincentiving high income earners from continuing to work. Let’s say a married couple is at the $350,000 income range, living in a city where it’s fairly expensive to live. They have children, and pay a LOT for after-school childcare, both in activities and nanny services to get the children to where they need to go. For the most part (after $5000/child, anyway) they have to pay for all that with after-tax dollars. Expensive.

At some point, as taxes for this “rich” couple go up, when taxes are raised, which an Obama White House and Congress will certainly make happen, the couple will reassess, and may decide that for economic and lifestyle reasons, it makes sense to give up one job and move somewhere less expensive. The end result will be one high-earning partner out of the workforce, and more importantly, one less Social Security contributor at a time when the Boomers are starting to retire in larger and larger numbers.

Good strategy, Barack. Straight out of the Clinton early 90s playbook. Thank goodness our economic situation in this country hasn’t changed at all in the past 16 years.

But then again, maybe the Democrats’ plan is to accelerate the bankruptcy of the entitlement programs the boomer generation have been counting on all along. Remember, big government politicians rely on a dependent population for their power. Congress has their own retirement programs and don’t participate in Social Security. They can bankrupt all the entitlements they want without ever worrying about missing a check themselves.

They’re immune from a lot of the damage Obama’s plan would cause.

But are you?

Posted in Economy, Politics
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Corsi Book Slams Obama

The #1 seller on Amazon right now is a book that will hopefully end the Obama campaign’s chances for winning the White House in November.

I’ve made no secret about the fact that this blog supported Ron Paul for President. He was the only candidate who truly understands the nature of the crisis our nation is entering. At best, it will be difficult. At worst, it could end the dominance of the United States on the international stage, possibly forever. There is the very real chance that within a few short years, countless areas of our country will resemble the poverty-ridden third world villages you see in television infomercials asking for money to help feed their children.

But the media decided Dr. Paul was a crank unworthy of serious coverage. They love Obama. They tolerate McCain. A Presidency of the latter will not do a thing to move the United States in the direction it needs to go to address these problems. If the former wins in November, the Republic is in serious danger. Here’s why.

Barack Hussein Obama is an empty suit who is only a serious contender for the Presidency because of his race. He has 143 days experience in the Senate, and has not put forth a single idea or even the tiniest scrap of a note of what he believes should be done to put this country back on the right track. He will in no way have the support of the majority of the American people because he is the son of a African Muslim and an American woman who clearly had problems with mainstream American life and culture. Is he intelligent? Sure seems so to me. Is he a good man? I haven’t seen anything (other than the normal political dishonesty that seems to be almost a prerequisite for staying in the Senate) that suggests he is anything but an honorable American. Do I believe he is a danger to our country?

No.

But his Presidency would be. I think our country is a tinderbox of civil trouble waiting for ignition. The mainstream middle to upper-middle class American is besieged with a host of people who want what they have without having to work for it. From illegal Mexican immigrants who demand that we educate their children and give them public assistance and all the rights and privileges of American citizenship, to a thuggish, prison-life inspired class that prefers to take, rather than work for what they need to the middle-class youth culture who, because of the trash the commercial media produces, enjoys emulating that thuggish prison-inspired rap culture, we feel besieged. This is not the America of my childhood, and I feel sad that my son won’t be able to experience that America. Furthermore, I refuse to feel embarrassed that I wanted that same America to last, and I object to any who call me “racist” because I mourn the America of the 50s and 60s.

Because it’s not about not wanting a black President. I don’t care if the President’s black or white. I care that he’s capable, honest, has ideas and beliefs he is willing and able to articulate, even if I disagree with him. I DO care that there are those who want Obama to be the President BECAUSE he is black.

In my opinion, THAT makes someone a racist.

I think there’s a very good chance that the Obamas will move into the White House next January, and I dread that, because I believe it will get very, very ugly. And right now, America doesn’t need that.

Posted in Politics, US
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Why Has the Price of Gold Fallen?

gold coin american eagle - Google Image SearchIt’s been a tough week for gold bugs. Though I don’t give financial advice on this blog, I invest in gold and in the stock of companies that mine the stuff, and I repeat, it’s been a tough week. No, make that a tough month.

But, it hasn’t discouraged me. The bulk of my safely stored away in the hills of West Virginia treasury was purchased when the price of an ounce of gold was in the $220 range. So, I’m not worried. Even if you purchased gold closer to the $1000 price it was in the winter, you shouldn’t worry. Jim Sinclair is predicting a $1200/ounce price soon, and a $1650/ounce mark within the next 18 months. I believe him.

That being said, there’s a lot of speculation about what’s going on right now though. Sinclair linked to this excellent article.

Makes sense to me. The rest of the world has pulled ahead of the U.S. in the “race to the economic bottom,” so naturally, all things being relative, the Dollar looks better. But never fear, gold bugs…America will catch up. It’s an election year, and more trash is being swept under the rug than can be imagined.

Posted in Economy
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The Banking System Crash: Not “IF” but “WHEN?”

The Cutting Edge NewsThis from the Senior Director of Strategic Planning at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, as quoted on The Cutting Edge News:

The U.S. banking system is essentially insolvent. The Treasury, Federal Reserve, FASB, and Congress are colluding to keep the American public in the dark for as long as possible. They are trying to buy time and prop up these banks so they can convince enough fools to give them more capital. They will continue to write off debt for many quarters to come. We could have a zombie banking system for a decade.

How can our government lie to us like this? Well, unfortunately, we got the government we deserved. We put a higher priority on the pre-fab faux rich McMansion lifestyle, complete with 3 car payments, 4,000 square foot estate, 52 inch plasma tvs and lavish vacations, all on a family income of $65,000, than on electing a government that wasn’t interested in doing the political groundwork necessary for making millions of these pipe dreams a temporary reality.

The next several years (or decades) will be us paying for these mistakes. I’m afraid the good times are over.

Posted in Economy, Housing Bubble
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Long-term Pessimism in the Economy

Bulls and Bears. They’re usually easy to spot on the internet. The Bulls have months-old sounding pitches for how to get rich with stocks and real estate (I’m amazed that on satellite radio, I can still hear commercials touting some guy’s course for buying and flipping houses and making boatloads of money!).

The extreme-Bears are easy to spot, too. Their websites usually have ads for survival food, retreat land and home construction, guns and ammo and radiation detectors.

Somewhere in the middle is Robert Kiyosaki, who wrote Rich Dad, Poor Dad, an excellent common-sense manual for financial security. Kiyosaki’s pessimistic about the economy right now, though:

In an earlier column, I stated that it was time to sell all nonperforming real estate. My market indicator? A checkout girl at the local supermarket, who handed me her real estate agent card. She was quitting her job to become a real estate professional.

As a bull market turns into a bear market, the new pros turn into optimists, hoping and praying the bear market will become a bull and save them. But as the market remains bearish, the optimists become pessimists, quit the profession, and return to their day jobs. This is when the real professional investors re-enter the market. That’s what’s happening now.

From an article posted July 22, 2008.

Am I optimistic for the long-term? Absolutely not. I still believe we’re due for the mother of all market crashes, and that the U.S. economy is running on borrowed time — and I do mean borrowed. I think most baby boomers are in serious financial trouble, and that oil will climb above $200 a barrel. Inflation will also increase, causing more pain for the poor and middle class.

The Fed is flooding the market with nearly a trillion dollars of liquidity, which is why I believe gold under $1,200 an ounce and silver under $30 an ounce are bargains. Gold and silver should peak and decline before 2020, completing two 20-year cycles. My exit is to sell silver around 2015. I plan to hold onto gold, income-producing real estate, oil wells, and stocks.

Most of us know the bull climbs slowly up the stairs, but the bear jumps out the window. I believe the bull is still climbing the stairs, and the bear hasn’t jumped yet. But rest assured that it will.

Agreed.

Posted in Economy
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Peak Oil and Peak Everything…Including Football

Untitled-1 @ 100% (RGB/8)One of the very dangerous things about Peak Oil is that it will eventually have an effect on everything in our daily lives.

Everything.

Consider Peak Football and waving goodbye to Ronaldo. In short, Rob Hopkins, blogging at Transition Culture discusses the possible trade of a Manchester United player for a large amount of cash. Hopkins points out that, though he’s a huge fan of Ronaldo, given the trouble now coming into view because of Peak Oil, the team might well be better served by eliminating a lot of debt than having a world class player on its roster.

In this discussion, Hopkins has an interesting idea:

I spent a couple of days last week attending the Green New Deal think-tank type event in London, and at one point we were asked to speak about what we thought we would see in the world in 50 months from now (late 2012). One of the things I came up with was “the first World Cup Finals to be cancelled because no-one could get to them”.

Obviously, he’s talking about a world where it’s too expensive to travel. That world is approaching fast, my friends. Because it’s such a horrible thought, most Americans don’t think it through to its logical conclusion. This is all very dangerous because if fuel costs too much for us to travel, and too much to drive to work every day, it’ll be too expensive for the trucks to bring the Twinkies, Doritos and 24-can cases of Bud Light to the neighborhood Safeway, too. This is a serious, serious, problem.

Because here in the U.S. we spend so much energy talking about whether Peak Oil even exists or not (global warming, too, for that matter), we don’t have anything left to discuss what the hell to do about it, and that’s a problem.

The absolutely insane “drill, drill, drill” crowd, led by the far right talk radio pitchmen are successfully keeping the discourse on the truth or lie of the approaching problem, while countries like the UK are moving forward on “transition,” hoping to preserve as much of their way of life as possible as oil becomes more costly. Since the British culture is far less dependent on the automobile, they’re way ahead of us, and in that is perhaps our answer.

Many, including James Kunstler, don’t think it’s possible for the U.S. to even come close to preserving our current way of life. American culture is based on the suburb, which is made possible by cheap oil. Without cheap gas, the suburbs don’t work. Unfortnately, we don’t have a plan ‘B’. It’s the auto or nothing. We’ve allowed our rail system to decline to the point where it’s a joke, and would require enormous quantities of effort, money and belief to turn it around. Possible? Sure. If we had a government capable of both understanding the problem and rallying us in a space race-like effort, we could accomplish creating a new rail system that would take a lot of the pressure off of the automobile. But, the men and women who make up our government are mostly ignorant of the problem, spending their time fund-raising so they can get re-elected, and cutting political deals to enrich themselves (which is why they want to get re-elected). So, they rely on lobbyists and twenty-something aides to “formulate” their opinions and their beliefs on the issues confronting us today. lt’s a recipe for disaster.

I read about the transition movement in the UK and long for similar projects to grow here. There’s some of it, of course, but our leaders are so busy dealing in fantasy and cinematic messages like “the terrorists are coming and I’m the one who can protect you!” and “I have the plan that can fix the economy.” It’s all nonsense. We might as well elect Bradgelina as first couple and just be done with it. Neither Obama nor McCain will be any more influential in finding a solution to our problems that Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie would be. Come to think of it, the latter couple probably, in reality, have a better grasp of the problems affecting our world today than the former two, both of them beltway bandits looking to the American people to immortalize them with election to the White House.

Posted in Economy, Peak Oil
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As the Housing Market Collapes, Neighborhoods Become “Ghost Towns”

As Michael Panzer points out at Financial Armageddon today, Jim Kunstler writes about a distopia where the suburbs are abandoned and become the new slums. Peak Oil and the housing bust feed on the final, inevitable collapse of the great American suburban experiment.

Interesting piece by Alex Roth of the Wall Street Journal about how half-built suburban developments strand early buyers in “post-calamity” like communities.

It’s a serious situation that will be worse before it gets better.

Posted in Economy, Housing Bubble
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