I’ve noticed recently the same phenomenon, that though all indicators say we’re in a severe economic meltdown, and entering a “greater depression,” life still goes on as before. The lights still work, the trucks still roll and in some cases, Black Friday was a success.
But, as we noticed last night, restaurants are empty, the airports aren’t madhouses, and there’s the palpable sense from those in the know that winter is coming.
Madness – US Confidence Plunges to a Record Low. Consumers aren’t confident about the future. What, they are surprised that real estate prices can’t rise forever? They’re surprised that interest rates on their adjustable-rate mortgage went up? Where have they been? What were they thinking? Madness of the crowd convinced them that there is no history worth reading.
S&P noted one bright spot as the acceleration in decline was only moderate in August from July.
Amazing.
Regrets – I regret that I bought the home in which I currently reside, purchased before things got ridiculous, instead of one way over what I could afford, because it looks like people who signed up for liar’s loansmay well get bailed out and be allowed to stay in the homes they couldn’t afford. If that happens, how will you feel about paying part of that mortgage payment? That’s what you’ll be doing.
It’s an amazing time when the optimists among us are expecting only a severe recession. But that’s the case right now. Most observers know what is coming. It’s a Depression (capital “D” intended) that’s coming, called by some another Great Depression, and by others the Greater Depression. I think that’s accurate.
Why? We have built our house on the shifting sands of credit, not financially stable savings. We made the mistake of assuming paper profits that were so inflated they weren’t even taxed (how insubstantial must a type of profit be for even the U.S. Government not to recognize it?). Sure, Capital Gains on Real Estate used to be taxed when the property was sold, but no longer. That, as much as anything should have tipped us off that they weren’t real.
Over the next two years, Americans will learn some hard lessons. Among them:
Real Estate prices cannot and do not go up forever.
Houses and ATMs are two very different things.
Our leaders don’t know nearly as much about the economy as they pretend to.
Spending more than you make doesn’t work for individuals, businesses or governments.
So, Americans are left watching the spectacle devoted to what the government is going to do to fix this. Soon, maybe in the next 3 weeks, maybe in the next 3 months, we as a society will come to the conclusion that the government hasn’t the first clue about how to fix the problem. At that point, Americans’ attention will shift to what they can do individually to protect themselves. My suggestion is that you make that shift now.
Toward that end, I’m putting together a report titled “A New Great Depression: What you can do to prepare your family and yourself for economic disaster.” It’s going to be a free report, downloadable from this site when it’s finished, hopefully by the end of the week.
In it, I’ll lay out where we are right now as an economy, and some of the things I believe we’ll be facing as Americans over the next 10 years. The report will have a set of steps to prepare for the aftermath of the collapse we’re seeing unfold right now.
As soon as I have it finished, I’ll post the link to download the report.
The fight for the economic survival of our nation continues as a day-to-day battle, rather than a war that’s either to be won or lost.
We’re down to a fighting retreat. My fear is even though we’ve still got lots of ground to give, we’re going to end up, to overextend the metaphor, on the beach at Dunkirk.
Another down day for the Dow today, closing down 189.01, with Gold closing over $900/oz and climbing after hours. Even more worrying for the non-Gold Bugs out there, is that the mining stocks came roaring back, racking up huge gains. They’ve been beaten down dramatically in the past few months, so there’s still lots of ground to make up, but it appears that recovery is on its way. And that’s a problem for the rest of the investment world. There’s no doubt now that money is fleeing to the safety of only true form of money – Gold.
What I’m still waiting for, is a sign that “Main Street” has woken up to the reality of the situation and understands that this is a situation that won’t just go away. That doesn’t seem in the offing, however. This very sentiment is echoed by Ira Glass on This American Life in the audio preface for Another Frightening Show About the Economy
Again, please heed this advice.
Get enough cash in hand to handle 1 or 2 months living expenses.
This from the Senior Director of Strategic Planning at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, as quoted on The Cutting Edge News:
The U.S. banking system is essentially insolvent. The Treasury, Federal Reserve, FASB, and Congress are colluding to keep the American public in the dark for as long as possible. They are trying to buy time and prop up these banks so they can convince enough fools to give them more capital. They will continue to write off debt for many quarters to come. We could have a zombie banking system for a decade.
How can our government lie to us like this? Well, unfortunately, we got the government we deserved. We put a higher priority on the pre-fab faux rich McMansion lifestyle, complete with 3 car payments, 4,000 square foot estate, 52 inch plasma tvs and lavish vacations, all on a family income of $65,000, than on electing a government that wasn’t interested in doing the political groundwork necessary for making millions of these pipe dreams a temporary reality.
The next several years (or decades) will be us paying for these mistakes. I’m afraid the good times are over.
Interesting piece by Alex Roth of the Wall Street Journal about how half-built suburban developments strand early buyers in “post-calamity” like communities.
It’s a serious situation that will be worse before it gets better.
I have been watching the media cover “preparedness” for quite some time. Sure, I come from breakdown-prepared stock (my family had cases of freeze-dried survival rations in the 70s), so I’ve always been more in tune with the topic, but never before have I seen the mainstream media start to treat the subject with anything but scorn.
With regard to the unraveling, that is changing. The media seems to be waking up.
From the New York Times: Duck and Cover: It’s the New Survivalism – A non-judgemental (unless the fops at the Times are keeping their tongues firmly in their cheeks on this one. If so, it was lost on me.
The word is getting out and hitting the mainstream, or more accurately, the non-salacious mainstream. The Telegraph? The Journal? The NYT? To be real, these outlets aren’t reporting the whole story, nor are they reporting it with the alarm that’s due, but it is showing up on their radar, which I find at once, both interesting and very troubling. I’m starting to thing our problems are bearing down on us much faster than we thought.
Article from Reuters. That this would be a surprise to anyone defies all common sense.
Entering the 20th century, the vast majority of Americans were employed in food production. Our resources were vast, and required a lot of hands to make the food we eat. Industry came, and with it, both higher paying jobs making cars (and other things). Fortunately, that same technological advance brought automation to the farm, freeing up a lot of those previously food-producing hands to go look for work in the factories in the big cities.
When foreign competition killed our steel and automotive industries, we started using the computers the industrial revolution made possible to create and sell “information.” The ridiculously cheap oil supplies we enjoyed (thanks to our “friendship” with oil sheiks in the ME) allowed us to create huge constellations of suburbs with their accompanying fast food franchises and big box stores, and sell things to each other, soaking up the enormous tidal waves of cash created by an army of manipulators of the economy.
America now has an economy that can be reduced in metaphor to a village of people who pay each other to do each others laundry. As long as some outside entity keeps sending checks to the villagers, it all works. But the many trouble-chickens coming home to roost in the U.S. right now are drying up the resources of that outside entity and the money is stopping.
What you are seeing right now in America, as we celebrate the birthday of this glorious Republic, is that we’re starting to do our own laundry. And so are our former customers, our neighbors.
Madness – 
It’s an amazing time when the optimists among us are expecting only a severe recession. But that’s the case right now. Most observers know what is coming. It’s a Depression (capital “D” intended) that’s coming, called by some another Great Depression, and by others the Greater Depression. I think that’s accurate.
The fight for the economic survival of our nation continues as a day-to-day battle, rather than a war that’s either to be won or lost.
This from the Senior Director of Strategic Planning at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, as quoted on 
Entering the 20th century, the vast majority of Americans were employed in food production. Our resources were vast, and required a lot of hands to make the food we eat. Industry came, and with it, both higher paying jobs making cars (and other things). Fortunately, that same technological advance brought automation to the farm, freeing up a lot of those previously food-producing hands to go look for work in the factories in the big cities.