I like Jim Kunstler. He’s a grouch. He’s grumpy, and yes, can seem to be a bit of what you could call a…Well, I won’t use the word, but you know the one of which I speak. And yes, his website, kunstler.com can be (to the uninformed) a bit tiresome.
Yes, we get it. You hate contemporary American culture, with our “mcmansions” and Wal-Mart and driving cars everywhere. We get that. And we know it’s all based on the availability of cheap petroleum (mostly gas and plastic). But Jim, you’re so angry! It’s almost as if you WANT it to all come crashing down.
I can see someone (again, an ill-informed someone) saying that, but they would be wrong. There are plenty of other intelligent experts who also know what’s going on (and what’s going to happen) but decide to be much more pleasant, friendly and comfortable to correspond with. The difference is, those other experts, who may or may not get more party invitations, probably aren’t taken as seriously as the strident Mr. Kunstler, because when you read Jim’s work, he has an intensity and confidence in his positions that is very compelling, and when you’re talking about subjects as serious as the future of our society and the survival of we individuals, you need to be compelling and sometimes even angry.
Of course, those who really don’t want to face the reality of the situation will see Jim Kunstler as more Rasputin than they’re comfortable with, but so what? Truth is truth, whether the right people hear it or not. On Kunstler’s newly redesigned website, he says:
Please note that I am leaving AOL for another email program and will not post the new address on my website. My burden of correspondence has reached the ‘red line,’ unfortunately, and there is no other solution to the problem.
Of course, there’s a solution. First of all, it would be getting rid of AOL, and using some tools to better manage larger volumes of email. There are those who deal with a lot more data than Kunstler, and separating himself from the reality of today, just makes him seem more like a neo-Luddite, which makes the interpretation that he wants it all to crash that much more believable. Living in today’s world and being able to adapt his message and methods to the current technology would only help spread his message, and that would be good for all of us.
Good for all of us? Why? Because his message is directly on-target, despite the strident tone the website takes, and that is everything.
Kunstler is focused on one message: The times in which we live are coming to an end, and what’s next will blow your mind. With this website, I try to convey that same message. WhatComesNext.com is more about looking at the different paths our society may end up taking. Kunstler is far more focused, and definite about what will happen. He speaks with a knowing that is hard to argue with (which you shouldn’t, because he’s right).
Read Kunstler.com every week. Don’t be put off by the direct way he communicates – it’s important. And for goodness’ sake, don’t email him.
Technorati Tags: Kunstler, Peak Oil
Posted in
Peak Oil,
Society
If you still doubt there’s a serious problem with the Real Estate industry, this posting from The Housing Doom Bubble Blog should give you pause. This is truly a "preview of Housing Armageddon."
El Mirage is a new, "suburb" of the Phoenix market, a community built on cheap oil/gas and 50+ mile round-trip work commutes. It’s a community that cut the ribbon at the top of the market, and now is suffering the consequences of the ridiculous hyper-confidence of buyers paying more for homes than they can afford, and lenders lending more than can be repaid.
Follow the link and look at all the gavels.
I live in the Phoenix area, but we bought our real estate before the excessive inflation of the prices, and in fact could have (read should probably have) sold our house 18 months or so later for over twice what we paid for it. We could still take a tidy profit, if we wanted to sit with the for-sale sign out front for long enough. But as I occasionally navigate the southern and western "suburbs" that stretch half-way to Tucson or Yuma, I just shake my head and say to myself that’s a really nice Bed, Bath and Beyond and a pretty big Starbucks, but when gas hits $5 a gallon and the layoffs hit, wave after wave, again and again, how will people make money to buy the stuff in the stores? Or even keep these houses?
As Jim Kunstler says in The Long Emergency
, places like Phoenix and Las Vegas in the near future will "dry up and blow away," since their very existence is made possible by cheap fossil fuels, commodities which are becoming a thing of the past. I believe that, and even though I own real estate in what may possibly be a future wasteland, we have the ability and the plan to escape it when the time comes.
Posted in
Economy,
Housing Bubble,
Peak Oil
First, he laughs at the absurd notion that there is any question why the price of oil is rising. He laughs at the New York Times, a news organization of the mainstream variety that simply refuse to believe things won’t continue just like they have for years and years.
After laughing, he points out that the price of oil is rising because the demand line has crossed the supply line (remember freshman Econ – I do) and so the dollars are chasing the oil. I realize that, as a trained economist, I may have a sensitivity to certain concepts of the field that others find mystifying, but jeesh, how simple can it be? I am astounded at the number of otherwise intelligent, wise and experienced people who believe that economic value can inflate endlessly with everyone getting richer and richer, and no one ever (save the occasional unlucky, greedy soul) having to pay the piper. Trust me, whether it’s the plummeting dollar or the skyrocketing price of housing, nothing continues unchecked forever.
Whether you listen to Jim Sinclair, as mentioned in posts last week, or Jim Kunstler (in his feature Clusterf**k Nation), it’s clear a line has been crossed and we’re probably past the point of no return.
When historians glance back at 2007 through the haze of their coal-fired stoves, they will mark this year as the onset of the Long Emergency – or whatever they choose to call the unraveling of industrial economies and the complex systems that constituted them. And if they retain any sense of humor – which is very likely since, as wise Sam Beckett once averred, nothing is funnier than unhappiness – they will chuckle at the assumptions that drove the doings and mental operations of those in charge back then (i.e. now).
He’s right. Whether or not we’ll be using coal-fired stoves (a distinct possibility), we’re clearly in for a rude awakening. That awakening is going to be the realization that the rest of the world neither lives like we do, nor is terribly concerned with us maintaining our gluttenous ways. If you have the stomach for it, I’d recommend reading Kunstler’s upcoming World Made by Hand, and Kim Stanley Robinson’s California Trilogy, saving Pacific Edge for last, to give yourself a little hope that the future may not be so bleak.
Save your money, buy your gold (closed at over $810 an ounce today and headed, according to Sinclair to $1,050 in the near future), pay off your debts, stock up on supplies and have a plan. Don’t buy crap you don’t need, and sell the crap you’ve already bought but don’t need. That’s what eBay is for.
Prepare.
Posted in
Economy,
Peak Oil,
Society
Globally, the West continues to somewhat quietly march toward war with Iran. Instituting more sanctions against Iranian companies and military/political organizations, the U.S. continues to demand that Iran give up all nuclear development. The recent Israeli attack on a Syrian site has drawn a deafening silence from all parties, suggesting to many analysts and observers that something seriously wicked was going on there, and that the Israelis (with approval of the U.S.) did the world a huge service. Reports from Israel say that elite commando units infiltrated the remote facility after tracking a load of “cement” from North Korea to the site and brought back soil samples that confirmed nuclear materials present. Then, it was missiles away, and a report in The Spectator suggests we came very close to World War that day.
The lack of any kind of meaningful protest or response from Syria or Iran virtually confirms the “gotcha.” Perhaps a triumph of intelligence after a number of failures over the past few years.
The U.S., Britain, France and Germany will got to war with Islamic forces in the Middle East, and I believe it will happen before George Bush leaves office. It will only be the latest in a war of the Christian World versus the Islamic World (that fight’s been going on for a LONG time), but this time it’s unclear which side the Russians will land on. History would tend to predict Russia being on our side, current political economic trends (energy) and their current stance suggest they would support the Iranians and Syrians. But once the shooting starts, the Russians have a habit of moving to the side of the winner. If the Iranians think they’ve got the Russians in their pocket, they need to look at the deal Stalin made with Hitler. And I believe that one was in writing, too.
So, we’re going to fight it out with the Iranians after all. It’s a fight many people wanted in 1979 when they took American hostages in Tehran. It’s almost 30 years later, and could have been avoided, but won’t be.
God be with us.
Technorati : Iran, Syria, War, World War III
Posted in
Peak Oil,
US,
War
I read with great interest the story of Totnes in Devon, UK, a town that wants to become a "transition town," or one that’s come to terms with a future that doesn’t include the reliance on cheap petroleum products that drive our current civilization.
Transition towns are communities which have accepted that peak oil will happen and have started to take steps to ensure that when it does start to impact, they’re ready for it.
They’re not wild-eyed survivalists, they’re just ordinary men and women with an eye to a potentially difficult future.
They believe in relocalisation, growing their food locally – even if that means digging up the local playpark and planting fruit trees or vegetables.
Jim Kunstler would be proud of them!
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Peak Oil
The horrific bridge collapse in Minneapolis is being called, not an accident, but the inevitable result of the terrible state of the U.S. infrastructure.
Why this is happening, is clear. Money that should be spent making sure the country’s transportation system is secure and safe to travel, is being spent (in addition to wars in the Middle East) on increasing the volume the highways can carry. Plus, the money used for repair and maintenance of the highway system isn’t keeping up with the increasing costs of materials and labor. If that’s not enough bad news, that money comes from taxes on gasoline, scheduled to run dry in 2009.
Ultimately, life after peak oil may well make the expansion of our highways pointless as most cars disappear from the highways due to astronomically high gas prices. In the meantime, thanks to a highway system in serious need of repair, "accidents" like the one in Minneapolis may become much more common.
Tags: Bridge Collapse, Minneapolis, Peak Oil, Transportation
Posted in
Peak Oil,
US
Passengers clapped and whistled as three princess from the family of Quatar’s Emir were escorted off a British Airways flight from Milan, when they refused to sit next to men they didn’t know.
OK, you’re travelling on public transportation (in Business Class) and you want others to have to move and split their traveling parties so you don’t have to sit next to an unfamiliar person? Sorry, not a good reason. But thank you ladies for once again showing that these people, as Western-loving as can seem to be (they were on a one-day shopping trip) aren’t Westerners. They are not our friends.
One of the more interesting aspects of the state of our world today, is how we seem to think that Arabs of any kind are friends of America. They are not. As in the case of Saudi Arabia, they may sell us oil and help keep the price down, but don’t forget the oil companies that pump and process Saudi oil were owned by U.S. companies until the Saudi government nationalized (stole) them (okay, threatened to nationalize them until they were granted tax breaks that led to their gaining control of the company – very slick operators). Why would we think Quatar is any more our friend than Saudi Arabia, where 19 of the 9/11 hijackers came from?
My only question? Why were these princesses flying via British Airlines? All the Quatar Royal 747s already engaged?
Posted in
Peak Oil,
Society,
US
Kunstler on the "Psychotic Break" at work in the oil and financial markets. In other words, the financial markets are sailing along, seemingly setting records (if one doesn’t count inflation and the CPI) while oil production is heading for a situation when oil producers stop exporting because the oil demands in their own countries have grown so much.
It’s a dangerous situation that according to Kunstler might bring about a catastrophe as early as this fall. Add to that the web bot prediction of an "emotional release" period in the fall (as chronicled on Urban Surival) where there are sudden "travel restrictions" and it looks like dark clouds are on the horizon.
Posted in
Economy,
Peak Oil