Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, again with the tough talk. He’s getting ready for a tour of Belerus, Iran and Russia, and planning some really big military purchases, in the face (he says) of the threat of agression from the U.S.
From brietbart.com:
Dressed in olive green fatigues and a red beret, Chavez spoke inside Tiuna Fort—Venezuela’s military nerve-center—before hundreds of uniformed soldiers standing alongside armored vehicles and tanks decorated with banners reading: "Fatherland, Socialism, or Death! We will triumph!"
"We must continue developing the resistance war, that’s the anti- imperialist weapon. We must think and prepare for the resistance war everyday," said Chavez, who has repeatedly warned that American soldiers could invade Venezuela to seize control of the South American nation’s immense oil reserves.
Will the U.S. invade the South American country for its oil? I’m not sure what the point would be, but then, the view from Pennsylvania Avenue is a little lot different than from everywhere else. What’s important for Chavez, is the appearance in his own country, that he’s their defense agains the boogeyman – namely George W. Bush and the United States. It’s more about his power than anything else. America can destroy his economy with a simple blockade – it doesn’t need boots on the ground to do that. Stop the oil money, and Chavez is done.
It’s always near. Seems so, anyway. Doomsday theories have been with us since language started. It seems that the first thing a proto-human said when he first learned to speak was "we’re all going to die."
Of course he was right.
But there’s something apparently hard-wired into our genes that makes some of us think that’s going to happen right now, or tomorrow at the very latest. Makes sense, I suppose -Â Survival instinct and all. But in our modern world, where our very existence isn’t threatened every day, if not every hour, that code, so important for evolution, has gone rogue. It sends warning messages constantly, and sometimes it’s hard to ignore. It’s why some of use experience road rage and all of us at least once in our life, turns into an asshole while driving. But the longer-termed result of this is the doomsday obsession.
In the late 70s, a publication appeared, authored by Robert White, called simply The Duck Book. Mr. White, who made a lot of money resurfacing airport runways, was a conservative who saw our way of life ending, thanks to the Communist threat. He published an issue every couple months, and offered a lifetime subscription (his life, not yours) for about US$30. He admitted to having terminal cancer, and was interested in building up a nest-egg for his wife and young child. Nice come-on. Apparently, it worked. Subscription checks flowed in and White made a lot of money. The terminal cancer thing turned out to be…well…not true.
The Duck Book was compelling stuff, modern John Birch Society stuff, and was for the most part, a reflection of the American return to conservative thought at the beginning of the Reagan 80s. White was murdered in Belize after giving an investment seminar there. It’s suspected his anti-communist stance and comments got him killed.
I remember reading an article by one of his associates, about touring Europe "one last time" before the big showdown with the Soviet Union and how it was only a matter of a couple years, if not a few months when the tanks would roll. I get those exact same feelings reading a lot of the "end is coming, better hunker down" stuff on the web, whether it’s George Ure’s excellent Urban Survival, or the kooky Surfing the Apocalypse. But is it all real? Sure it is. The web bot project Ure talks a lot about has had a number of interesting "hits," and his financial and investment sense is very sharp.
But doomsday?
What these guys will tell you (which your editor agrees with, by the way) is that the best kind of preparation is that which is never needed. As a computer geek from way back (my first website went up in 1994), I understand the power and limitations of our computer systems, and I was concerned about Y2K. I stocked up on basics, and brought in a lot of bottled water. I couldn’t have been happier to "liquidate" (sorry) that stock a year or two after bringing it in, because the peace of mind it bought me was more important than the money and effort involved. That didn’t stop extended family (who, by the way would have survived because of that water, had it been needed) from scoffing that they knew it was unnecessary. Wow, really? They KNEW it wouldn’t be needed? No experience whatsovever with data processing, as opposed to my 19 years of it (at that point)? They KNEW nothing would happen?
That’s why I’m not so quick to scoff. Take it all in, process it and prepare for what you can, in my mind is always a good choice.
So what’s the problem? Well, I’m all for warnings. Hell, that’s partly what this blog’s all about. It just bears thinking about balance when you’re looking for views of the future. Always focusing on the dark dangers can keep you from seeing the hope and optimistic attitudes that many have. We’re drawn these days to the distopian, rather than utopian outlook. The original Star Trek (and The Next Generation for that matter) were far more hopeful and light-filled than Battlestar Galactica, not that BSG isn’t a fantastic bit of sci-fi which I dearly love.
Here is a story that illustrates that despite the Mercedes Benz cars on the road and the satellite dishes on the roofs, what a backward, brutal medieval society most of the Middle East truly is. The ultimate irony is, when the oil runs out (and it’s running fast – Saudi production falling 8% last year) Peak Oil will eventually end the problem for the West. Once the oil is gone, the people who live there will go back to riding camels to kill each other.
There won’t be any reason to let them come to the West. They have nothing else of value. There are days when that day (for your editor’s taste) can’t come quickly enough.
I’m going to tell you right now, though, it’s not a pretty picture that Kunstler paints. Of all the possible futures, this one absolutely glows with real potential for becoming our reality. It’s amazing to me just how in denial our culture is about the coming effects of Peak Oil and the Housing Bubble, both terms that have become, for the masses anyway, memes of apocalypse and not taken seriously. But how can the problems be argued with? I know people who will tell me that real estate values will always go up. They always have and always will. In this conversation, I will ask "how much did your house appreciate last year?" In Phoenix, it’s not unusual for someone to answer "$100,000."
"Okay," I reply, "Did your income go up by that much?"
"No! I only got a 3% raise last year."
My final question then, is "so how much does real estate appreciate before no one can afford a house?"
The danger inherent in the Peak Oil situation we now find ourselves in, is that our way of life demands constant growth. From PeakOil.com:
Growing an economy is like increasing the energy in the system – it can’t just spring forth from nowhere; it has to come from something. You can do more with what you have by using it more efficiently, but this places an obvious ceiling on growth.
We in the U.S., and as a result around the world, accept a future that’s not only no less, but actually much more, than we have today. Growth is seen as necessary and normal. So is inflation. These are dangerous paradigms, as they can’t be continued indefinitely.
Now this peak oil thing is getting serious. according to a post on The Oil Drum, we may run out of beer before we run out of oil. Funny headline, but a serious situation underneath, thanks to our appetite for an endless supply of cheap fuel.
This is the point we’re at now. The whole system was greatly underwritten by the final peaking of available energy, chiefly oil, which made it possible in the first place to sell so much real estate in the farthest-flung outlands of the American landscape, including not only desert and swamp, but also prime farmland. The housing bubble began to collapse at exactly the moment that the world reached its all-time oil production peak: the summer of 2005.
Matthew Simmons thinks so too. He believes that we could see $300/barrel oil, which is survivable if the US “liberates the workforce” and lets people work when and where they want. Simmons says that telecommuting’s productivity gains could get us through the changes brought about by Peak Oil
If you’re serious at all about trying to figure out what the future will bring, you must read 
The danger inherent in the Peak Oil situation we now find ourselves in, is that our way of life demands constant growth. From PeakOil.com: