I like Jim Kunstler. He’s a grouch. He’s grumpy, and yes, can seem to be a bit of what you could call a…Well, I won’t use the word, but you know the one of which I speak. And yes, his website, kunstler.com can be (to the uninformed) a bit tiresome.
Yes, we get it. You hate contemporary American culture, with our “mcmansions” and Wal-Mart and driving cars everywhere. We get that. And we know it’s all based on the availability of cheap petroleum (mostly gas and plastic). But Jim, you’re so angry! It’s almost as if you WANT it to all come crashing down.
I can see someone (again, an ill-informed someone) saying that, but they would be wrong. There are plenty of other intelligent experts who also know what’s going on (and what’s going to happen) but decide to be much more pleasant, friendly and comfortable to correspond with. The difference is, those other experts, who may or may not get more party invitations, probably aren’t taken as seriously as the strident Mr. Kunstler, because when you read Jim’s work, he has an intensity and confidence in his positions that is very compelling, and when you’re talking about subjects as serious as the future of our society and the survival of we individuals, you need to be compelling and sometimes even angry.
Of course, those who really don’t want to face the reality of the situation will see Jim Kunstler as more Rasputin than they’re comfortable with, but so what? Truth is truth, whether the right people hear it or not. On Kunstler’s newly redesigned website, he says:
Please note that I am leaving AOL for another email program and will not post the new address on my website. My burden of correspondence has reached the ‘red line,’ unfortunately, and there is no other solution to the problem.
Of course, there’s a solution. First of all, it would be getting rid of AOL, and using some tools to better manage larger volumes of email. There are those who deal with a lot more data than Kunstler, and separating himself from the reality of today, just makes him seem more like a neo-Luddite, which makes the interpretation that he wants it all to crash that much more believable. Living in today’s world and being able to adapt his message and methods to the current technology would only help spread his message, and that would be good for all of us.
Good for all of us? Why? Because his message is directly on-target, despite the strident tone the website takes, and that is everything.
Kunstler is focused on one message: The times in which we live are coming to an end, and what’s next will blow your mind. With this website, I try to convey that same message. WhatComesNext.com is more about looking at the different paths our society may end up taking. Kunstler is far more focused, and definite about what will happen. He speaks with a knowing that is hard to argue with (which you shouldn’t, because he’s right).
Read Kunstler.com every week. Don’t be put off by the direct way he communicates – it’s important. And for goodness’ sake, don’t email him.
Technorati Tags: Kunstler, Peak Oil
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It’ll be either unexpectedly great, about the same as normal, or really bad. I’d say there’s a 33% chance of each. How’s that for making predictions?
The guys doing work in what they call “predictive linguistics,” in which computers scan user-generated content on the web and makes predictions based on how the language changes, believe that human culture telegraphs its intentions through language shifts that are observable. Whether you believe they can tell the future by reading the tea leaves of the net or not is your business, but they’ve had some interesting “hits.” More information about this at the Half Past Human website. Frequent analysis and discussion of the ongoing predictive linguistic work happens at UrbanSurvival, so much so, that I have a hunch that George Ure, UrbanSurvival’s editor has some stake in it.
At any rate, recent predictive linguistic work is apparently calling for an “emotional release” period (read something bad happening) commencing in late November of this year, which I would imagine, could mean bad news for the Christmas Shopping season. Even if no terrorist attack, natural disaster or huge financial credit writedown trashes consumer confidence, it’s already pretty low. Job layoffs abound, the real estate bubble continues to deflate and the dollar is tanking. Things are looking pretty grim. There’s quite a case to be made that this year, Kris Kringle’s simply staying at the North Pole.
On the other hand, we Americans are, some would say incredibly optimistic. Many call it “living in denial,” but however you characterize it, sometimes we simply say “damn the torpedoes, full speed (buy another plasma TV) ahead!” So the holiday season could really rock, despite the distress the financial system is currently experiencing.
Or, a combination of the good and evil listed above could combine for a “normal” holiday buying season. The problem is, until we face the reality of the distress our economic system is in, the bubble continues to inflate and the corrective explosion will only be larger.
So, from me to you, Happy Holidays.
Technorati Tags: Depression, Economy, Predictive Linguistics, Recession
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First, he laughs at the absurd notion that there is any question why the price of oil is rising. He laughs at the New York Times, a news organization of the mainstream variety that simply refuse to believe things won’t continue just like they have for years and years.
After laughing, he points out that the price of oil is rising because the demand line has crossed the supply line (remember freshman Econ – I do) and so the dollars are chasing the oil. I realize that, as a trained economist, I may have a sensitivity to certain concepts of the field that others find mystifying, but jeesh, how simple can it be? I am astounded at the number of otherwise intelligent, wise and experienced people who believe that economic value can inflate endlessly with everyone getting richer and richer, and no one ever (save the occasional unlucky, greedy soul) having to pay the piper. Trust me, whether it’s the plummeting dollar or the skyrocketing price of housing, nothing continues unchecked forever.
Whether you listen to Jim Sinclair, as mentioned in posts last week, or Jim Kunstler (in his feature Clusterf**k Nation), it’s clear a line has been crossed and we’re probably past the point of no return.
When historians glance back at 2007 through the haze of their coal-fired stoves, they will mark this year as the onset of the Long Emergency – or whatever they choose to call the unraveling of industrial economies and the complex systems that constituted them. And if they retain any sense of humor – which is very likely since, as wise Sam Beckett once averred, nothing is funnier than unhappiness – they will chuckle at the assumptions that drove the doings and mental operations of those in charge back then (i.e. now).
He’s right. Whether or not we’ll be using coal-fired stoves (a distinct possibility), we’re clearly in for a rude awakening. That awakening is going to be the realization that the rest of the world neither lives like we do, nor is terribly concerned with us maintaining our gluttenous ways. If you have the stomach for it, I’d recommend reading Kunstler’s upcoming World Made by Hand, and Kim Stanley Robinson’s California Trilogy, saving Pacific Edge
for last, to give yourself a little hope that the future may not be so bleak.
Save your money, buy your gold (closed at over $810 an ounce today and headed, according to Sinclair to $1,050 in the near future), pay off your debts, stock up on supplies and have a plan. Don’t buy crap you don’t need, and sell the crap you’ve already bought but don’t need. That’s what eBay is for.
Prepare.
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The past week has been a difficult one for the MacLeods, but not as tough as it was for some.
My family was affected by the California Wildfires, my parents losing their home early Monday morning. The first reverse-911 call came in at about midnight, suggesting they prepare to evacuate. Two hours later, the call came – evacuate immediately. They did. Probably in the next couple hours, the home my father designed and built on a scenic hillside outside San Diego in a small gated community was consumed by fire so quickly nothing identifiable remained. Everything burned, melted and congealed into a pile of rubble. It was truly amazing.
But all are okay, the house and contents insured and life goes on. For them, at least. For those not insured or prepared (and there are many, as we will hear about in the coming weeks) life is difficult right now. Some overly optimistic watchers are actually excited, saying the disaster will create a huge demand for new housing, with new jobs, materials purchased and will result in a new California real estate boom. Their theory is that the excess supply of California housing just got burned down.
Sadly, that’s not true. The real estate inventory problem in California isn’t one of structures, it’s one of credit. The subprime meltdown is shutting off the financing for overpriced-underafforded housing. There aren’t too many houses on the market, there’s a shortage of buyers who though unable to truly afford them, were previously able to finance them. Big difference. I think a lot of burned down houses will stay down for the count. All won’t be rebuilt right away.
Rather than saving the California economy, I fear these wildfires will deal it a harsh blow.
Technorati : California, Wildfires
Posted in
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US
Passengers clapped and whistled as three princess from the family of Quatar’s Emir were escorted off a British Airways flight from Milan, when they refused to sit next to men they didn’t know.
OK, you’re travelling on public transportation (in Business Class) and you want others to have to move and split their traveling parties so you don’t have to sit next to an unfamiliar person? Sorry, not a good reason. But thank you ladies for once again showing that these people, as Western-loving as can seem to be (they were on a one-day shopping trip) aren’t Westerners. They are not our friends.
One of the more interesting aspects of the state of our world today, is how we seem to think that Arabs of any kind are friends of America. They are not. As in the case of Saudi Arabia, they may sell us oil and help keep the price down, but don’t forget the oil companies that pump and process Saudi oil were owned by U.S. companies until the Saudi government nationalized (stole) them (okay, threatened to nationalize them until they were granted tax breaks that led to their gaining control of the company – very slick operators). Why would we think Quatar is any more our friend than Saudi Arabia, where 19 of the 9/11 hijackers came from?
My only question? Why were these princesses flying via British Airlines? All the Quatar Royal 747s already engaged?
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It’s always near. Seems so, anyway. Doomsday theories have been with us since language started. It seems that the first thing a proto-human said when he first learned to speak was "we’re all going to die."
Of course he was right.
But there’s something apparently hard-wired into our genes that makes some of us think that’s going to happen right now, or tomorrow at the very latest. Makes sense, I suppose -Â Survival instinct and all. But in our modern world, where our very existence isn’t threatened every day, if not every hour, that code, so important for evolution, has gone rogue. It sends warning messages constantly, and sometimes it’s hard to ignore. It’s why some of use experience road rage and all of us at least once in our life, turns into an asshole while driving. But the longer-termed result of this is the doomsday obsession.
In the late 70s, a publication appeared, authored by Robert White, called simply The Duck Book. Mr. White, who made a lot of money resurfacing airport runways, was a conservative who saw our way of life ending, thanks to the Communist threat. He published an issue every couple months, and offered a lifetime subscription (his life, not yours) for about US$30. He admitted to having terminal cancer, and was interested in building up a nest-egg for his wife and young child. Nice come-on. Apparently, it worked. Subscription checks flowed in and White made a lot of money. The terminal cancer thing turned out to be…well…not true.
The Duck Book was compelling stuff, modern John Birch Society stuff, and was for the most part, a reflection of the American return to conservative thought at the beginning of the Reagan 80s. White was murdered in Belize after giving an investment seminar there. It’s suspected his anti-communist stance and comments got him killed.
I remember reading an article by one of his associates, about touring Europe "one last time" before the big showdown with the Soviet Union and how it was only a matter of a couple years, if not a few months when the tanks would roll. I get those exact same feelings reading a lot of the "end is coming, better hunker down" stuff on the web, whether it’s George Ure’s excellent Urban Survival, or the kooky Surfing the Apocalypse. But is it all real? Sure it is. The web bot project Ure talks a lot about has had a number of interesting "hits," and his financial and investment sense is very sharp.
But doomsday?
What these guys will tell you (which your editor agrees with, by the way) is that the best kind of preparation is that which is never needed. As a computer geek from way back (my first website went up in 1994), I understand the power and limitations of our computer systems, and I was concerned about Y2K. I stocked up on basics, and brought in a lot of bottled water. I couldn’t have been happier to "liquidate" (sorry) that stock a year or two after bringing it in, because the peace of mind it bought me was more important than the money and effort involved. That didn’t stop extended family (who, by the way would have survived because of that water, had it been needed) from scoffing that they knew it was unnecessary. Wow, really? They KNEW it wouldn’t be needed? No experience whatsovever with data processing, as opposed to my 19 years of it (at that point)? They KNEW nothing would happen?
That’s why I’m not so quick to scoff. Take it all in, process it and prepare for what you can, in my mind is always a good choice.
So what’s the problem? Well, I’m all for warnings. Hell, that’s partly what this blog’s all about. It just bears thinking about balance when you’re looking for views of the future. Always focusing on the dark dangers can keep you from seeing the hope and optimistic attitudes that many have. We’re drawn these days to the distopian, rather than utopian outlook. The original Star Trek (and The Next Generation for that matter) were far more hopeful and light-filled than Battlestar Galactica, not that BSG isn’t a fantastic bit of sci-fi which I dearly love.
As with all in life, it’s about balance.
- A. MacLeod
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Kunstler on thinking about what might happen when it’s not such a good idea to display wealth:
I admit it was not a big deep thought, just an eerie one. Of course, one would have to begin by asking what kind of society would worship clowns like Donald Trump in the first place — and the answer would be: a society of envious slobs deluded into thinking that they could become the next Trump if only the Baby Jeezus would whack them over the head with a sock-full of silver dollars. This is, after all, a culture currently fueled by two dangerously childish ideas: that it’s possible to get something for nothing, and that when you wish upon a star your dreams come true.
 People who believe that it’s possible to get something for nothing can be persuaded easily that those who have gotten a lot have gotten it unfairly. And the flip side of wishing upon stars is that when your dreams don’t come true you can only blame it on the stars.
It’s hard to locate in history another society so devilishly rigged for implosion than the empire that runs from sea to shining sea. Every structural element in our financial sector is a jackstraw groaning under a load of false expectation. The hedge funds are only the most elaborate pieces, with their intertwined webs of exponentially unreckoned risk. The equity markets are a three-ringed circus of "greater fools." The mortgage clusterfuck has barely begun, with a tidal wave of ARM re-sets about to kick in that will not only shatter the aspirations of the formerly-middle-class, but will also put the entire suburban sprawl-building juggernaut out-of-business — just as the imminent global oil crisis makes that way-of-life obsolete. The undercarriage of the vehicle — medical and retirement entitlements, plus the social safety net — is rotting away as the massive debt obligations of the federal government are suddenly denied an easy re-fi rollover by the foreign central banks who no longer see the point in buying the trash paper of a nation that manufactures little more than celebrity envy fantasies.
As with many Kunstler posts, it’s a remarkably clear and lucid vision of very real possibilities. He’s no wild-eyed anarchy-loving survivalist praying for all things to come crashing down. You can almost hear the frustration in his writing voice that just doesn’t understand why those who disagree with him can’t see the obvious truth in front of them.
His vision is clear.
Tags: economy, peak oil, kunstler, real estate bubble
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There’s a fascinating read today in the Arizona Republic about the Hohokam civilization that goes back some 3,000 years and created a huge culture that spanned the area currently occupied by Phoenix, Arizona. Unfortunately, the Hohokam overreached what the area could support and collapsed, leaving only a few standing walls and the bare remnants of a great civilization by the time Europeans made it to the Salt River Valley after the Civil War.
Look across Phoenix at night and it seems resplendent, unassailable, along seamless corridors of light where the once lonely towns of Mesa, Tempe, Chandler and Goodyear converge, absorbed into a greater municipality. Curiously, these lights define the same settlement patterns archaeologists have found among Hohokam communities. The two cities overlap as if made for each other.
My take from the story is that as smart as we 21st century humans think we are, there are few problems we have that haven’t been dealt with by those who went before, and who as much as we’d like to believe were savages not intelligent enough to survive, may have easily been our match in most ways that make up the difference between life and death. Who can doubt that humans repeat historical failure constantly and that we never seem to learn enough from our travails? Who is to say those who live in the space formerly occupied by the Hohokam are any more suited to succeed when that vanished people failed?
Modern, historic canals follow those of a vanished people (Part 1) – azcentral.com.
Demise of Ancient People a Harbinger for Valley (Part 2)
For Phoenix, as for Hohokams, the rise is just like the fall (Part 3)
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