Back From A Break

It’s been quite a long gap in posting, but for good reason, I think. My family, for the first time in many years, took a long holiday break from work and school. Though I had every intention of “working” on WCN.net while away (it’s more a labor of love and concern than true “work”) I decided a couple days into the vacation to consider it work and stay away from it. That, in my opinion, was a good decision, as it allowed me to soak in some life, recharge, and watch the world more as a participant than as an observer. I believe the insight I gained from this helped me better understand what’s going on, and it gave me some ideas to share with you in the coming weeks.

Once I got back to the “business” of WCN, I saw some things that need to change with the site. You’ll start to see some of those changes gradually over the next month. The big change is of perspective. It occured to me that this site has been mostly about the possible branches on the path that our economy and resulting society could travel. WCN.net is going to start being more about the path we’re on and what you can do to survive, thrive and be successful in our new world. Make no mistake, we are in a world that’s much different than the one we were living in 2 years ago.

We are living through a societal paradigm shift that is changing almost everything about the way we live in the U.S. Part of that paradigm shift is that sites like WCN.net, Kunstler.com, Financial Armageddon, When Giants Fall, WorldNetDaily, Urban Survival and others are “suddenly” seem less directed at the “paranoid fringe” and more for everyone. Those sites mentioned haven’t changed their direction, many people are simply seeing the light. Events have played out in ways the writers and editors of those sites (and many more, by the way) predicted. Those who previously scoffed are now getting it, and in many cases, preaching the gospel of dramatic change.

The tenor of WCN.net won’t change. The changes I’ve been writing about for a couple years now are happening, and instead of engaging in the tempting “I told you so” that would be easy to write, I’m going to transition to writing more about what preparations and activities could help ensure survival and success in these difficult times.

Hopeful Signs from Washington?

In these terribly troubled times, as I write this on Thanksgiving Day, 2008, at 3:35am (I’m an early riser), I am a little puzzled, but feeling some hope creep into my thoughts about the leader we elected earlier this month.

Since Ronald Reagan, the first Presidential candidate I voted for, casting that first vote when I was 21, the politics of who the Chief Executive surrounded himself with was at least as important as his own. Though I stress it’s still early, it looks like the far left, who thought they were electing an almost socialist radical got duped. President-Elect Obama is surrounding himself with a moderate to (shockingly) conservative cabinet and panel of advisors.

I have to admit, I’m intrigued and…OK…a little Impressed.

The left is…Well, pissed.

The appointment of Paul Volker to a panel of experts hoping to stabilize the economy is, though hopeless, a great choice. He should be the Chairman of the Fed again, but then any one of the cast of the television show Laverne and Shirley would be better than Ben Bernanke.

Retaining Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense is on the one hand an example of promise-keeping, as Obama said he’d have Republicans in his administration, but on a darker note, probably a reflection of what the President-Elect has learned since getting a big upgrade in the quality of his intelligence briefings. My gut tells me he’s heard things that rule out his changing horses at the Pentagon right now, and thought it could be as simple as the fact that we’re currently in two wars, it’s probably much more than that.

Making Hillary Clinton Secretary of State is, in my opinion, one of the boldest, most Machiavellian moves ever. Many wondered exactly why Obama would appoint such a bitter rival for the nomination that led to his election. What better way to eliminate Hillary from the game than to make her Secretary of State? To accept the job, which takes much, much more tact and finesse than Hillary possesses, she must give up her Senate seat. Hillary Clinton will fail at State. No one likes her, and that’s a problem. She’ll run, like a bull through a china shop, over allies and adversaries alike. To be Secretary of State, I would think you would need a huge reservoir of humility and empathy, traits that Hillary Clinton has famous shortages of. Once she’s gone from the State Department, she’s gone for good. Her Senate seat will have been filled. She’ll be out, unless the Governor of New York, David Paterson, replaces her with Bill. Nice.

Considering the Future

If you’re a regular reader, you probably have noticed a slowdown in the number of posts since the election of Barack Obama. Though I didn’t intend to slow down or stop posting, the events of November 4, 2008 have caused me to realize that the future of this website is uncertain. To be frank, I’m not sure about the direction (if any) I should take with it.

The American People have spoken, and what they said was “we choose the message of change Obama and his $600 Million in marketing has sold us.” Think about that. $600 MILLION dollars were raised and most of it spent to acquire the White House. These foolish, foolish people have elected a man no one knows that much about. It’s at times, very frightening.

But it’s done.

I’m not writing right now, because the future is getting so terribly dangerous for Americans, who are mostly asleep. But an abrupt wakeup is coming. It will probably begin not long after the first of the year, after the worst retail holiday season ever, as in the cold, harsh light of the winter of a new year, companies begin their fiscal years gutted from layoffs. In many, many companies across the country, only essential employees will remain. Layoff news stories that will begin in early January will be shocking, and mind-numbing as they roll over us like a tsunami. Chicago Mayor Richard Daly calls it “frightening.”

“We never experienced anything like this except people who came from the Depression,” Mayor Daley said. “When you have that many layoffs early – and they’re telling me this is only the beginning of their layoffs – that is very frightening.”

I believe some of the darker predictions of Kunstler, Panzer and Orlov will come to pass in 2009. I do not believe there is much we can do to stop it. For ourselves and our families, we can only prepare.

So, in that spirit, I’m spending my What Comes Next? time finishing up my special report What You Can Do to Protect Your Family and Yourself During This “Greater Depression.”

I’m also spending some time thinking about whether, as a family, we stay or we go. I’ve always rolled my eyes at those people who say “if so and so is elected, I’m leaving the country…” but this is different. It’s not so much Obama that I’m worried about (though I’m not at all comfortable with such an unknown quantity with his questionable background leading our nation), but the mentality of the people who elected him, whether its a culture of people who feel it’s time for payback of one type or another for one perceived injustice or another, or a culture of tv-fed, clueless liberal magical thinking sleepers who believe in this vague message of “change,” and may or may not soon wake up to realize they’ve brought about a change much different than the one they intended.

In short, my family may decide that it’s time to expatriate, and return to the land of my wife’s parents and my grandparents in the UK. My name will probably tip you off to exactly where that is. We’re currently evaluating the real estate situation in both Glenfinnan on the mainland and Portree on the Isle of Skye, as we consider where it would be best to continue raising our family. It’s kind of heartbreaking to be seriously researching this, rather than just fancifully discussing it as we have in the past, because we’re both proud and loyal Americans. But, day by day, I can feel the America I knew growing up changing into something very different, both structurally, politically and philosophically. It’s changing into something that increasingly, I feel I don’t understand, someplace that’s not really “home.”

President Obama

As expected, Barack Hussein Obama was elected the 44th President of the United States on Tuesday. His supporters are jubilant, his opponents bitter. I understand both emotions, but both are pointless.

To those who voted against Obama:

Get over it. I’m one of you, as once again, I had to hold my nose and cast my ballot. Four years ago, it was for John Kerry, who I didn’t agree with politically, but knew we needed to change course for both geopolitical and economic reasons. I was right. It’s all the more frustrating for me and those who believe as I do, because this year, we had Ron Paul, until the Media and Republican Party marginalized Dr. Paul, the only candidate who showed he knew “his fanny from first base” as my father would say.

I understand if you want to bolt for the exits, I’m considering how best to do the same thing, but it has nothing to do with our pick for President. It’s economic, and there’s very little that President Obama will be able to do about it, except make it worse, and create for us a longer period of suffering. That, I fully expect. To those rabid opponents, you definitely need to get over it.

By all means, do what you can to get his birth certificate and make sure he hasn’t knowingly misrepresented his constitutional qualifications to be President, but I do not believe he is Muslim, a foreign agent or the Anti-Christ. At the worst, I believe he is an aggressive, ambitious politician, and I don’t mean that as a compliment. When he talks, assume what he says about “service” is more “acquistion of power.” I believe his lack of a track record (all those “present” votes) were more about his using his office not to serve his constituents, but instead his political ambitions, than it was about his being a mysterious servant of Islamic terrorists, a new Socialist/Communist/Fascist “strongman” or anything else the breathless conspiracy theorists hint at. Again, Republicans, get over it and start rebuilding the Party.

To those who voted for Obama:

Calm down.

Smoke a cigarette (even if you’re a non-smoker). He’s not the messiah. The world is not going to magically change on January 19th, and the higher and more you euphorically embellish just how awesome life will be when the Bush family moves out of the White House, the quicker and more massive the backlash will be when you realize you will still have to get up in the morning, go to work, do what your boss says, pay your bills and worry about pretty much the same things you had to worry about before. I especially pity the person, and there will be many of them, who focused their life over the past year, on getting Obama elected, but will find themself getting laid off next week, next month, or early in January. That story will be told many, many times.

George W. Bush didn’t, by any stretch of the imagination, help the economic situation we’re in. But he didn’t create it, either. No one person did. The biggest share of the blame goes to a Congress who, not understanding the economics of what was happening, did nothing to rein in those who were playing fast and loose with the rules to take incredibly dangerous long-term risks (to all of our financial futures) in the hopes of fabulous short-term profits. I have to admit a little pity for Obama, too. Why he and McCain wanted this job is beyond me.

For the President-Elect, life is going to be difficult when his supporters, no longer united by a common enemy (the Republican Party), will look at each other and realize that what they all had in common was the desire for change. But, they will soon find out that they all have very different ideas about what that change should look like. At that point, they won’t be united anymore.

Where we go from here.

I agree with Obama when he says we need to come together to fix the problems our nation faces. But, I must admit, when he talks about us always being the “United States of America,” I had to wonder, really?. The developing economic problems we’re facing here will do more separating than bringing together. I hope our Republic can survive it.

What Americans Don’t Know WILL Hurt Them

I must admit, I’ve been mystified by the reaction, or more accurately the lack of reaction by Americans with regard to our imploding economy. But I get it now, thanks to Dmitri Orlov’s excellent Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects. Orlov, an American with Russian roots, was able to watch the collapse of the Soviet Union while visiting a number of times during that collapse.

At the height of the intensity of the bailout drama a couple weeks ago, I visited a nice, mid to upscale mall where I occasionally shop (I needed the Apple Store, my only consumerist passion). I was amazed that even though our economy was on the verge of meltdown with anyone who knew anything about what was going on tense and wondering how the next couple days were going to play out, the everyday consumers flowing around me in the mall seemed completely unaware that anything unusual was going on. I realize now that they weren’t completely unaware of dramatic things going on, they were simply convinced that it wouldn’t affect them. That’s a distinction that was lost on me that day, as the well-practiced credit-card presentation moves were displayed even as the Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson got down on one knee to beg Nancy Pelosi to pass the $750 Billion bailout bill.

I was comfortable spending a little money that day, because I have protected myself from short-term disruptions in the everyday workings of our economy. Having cash on-hand, safely stored along with enough food, water and household goods to easily weather a couple months disruption is something I recommend to anyone who asks my advice about what could possibly happen. But looking around, I realized that few, if any, of my fellow shoppers had protected themselves in that way.

Reading Orlov’s new book yesterday, I realized that we Americans are asleep about what could happen to us because we don’t believe anything catastrophic could happen to us. And that’s not a completely unreasonable assumption, since nothing bad has happened to us in almost 80 years. Plus, it’s been almost 150 years since war has been seen on our shores, as wars are something that Americans have to travel a long way to participate in. It’s been that way since the Civil War ended in 1865. Europe lives with that collective memory still relatively fresh. Even if Europeans haven’t lived through it first-hand, it’s a part of their history that’s closer to the surface.

We in America are living in one of the best-insulated pockets of comfort the world has ever seen, and that will make the troubles that are almost certainly coming much harder to deal with. The shock Americans will feel when the ATMs don’t work will be devastating. When the grocery shelves are cleared by those with a little cash on-hand, the panic will set in. Most people don’t plan for disruption because they don’t believe it is possible. Waking up to the realization that their assumptions in that regard aren’t true will be a difficult experience.

The alarm has most certainly gone off. The government is frantically doing what it can to keep hitting the snooze button, but when it’s morning, you can only do that for so long before waking can no longer be delayed.