Depression Update

The question is no longer “if?” But rather “when?” and “how bad?”

Answers: 2009, and very bad.

We’ve got lots of data about what happens when economies slide into recession, but fortunately, little experience with what it’s like to enter a depression. My view is, we’re about to collect some data and add to our experience level.

Despite our lack of first-hand experience with depressions, one thing is clear – the beginning of an economic event like this can be like a snowball rolling down a hill, picking up energy and mass as it goes. That snowball is bearing down on us right now. Believe it.

Here are some important cues:

• The volatility of the market. Been watching the DOW lately?
• Shipping slowdowns – The less stuff coming into “Consumerland” (the U.S.), the less stuff that will be sold, with all sorts of negative results like layoffs, lower sales tax collections (resulting in state and city budgetary shortfalls, resulting in layoffs, and on and on. Stories here, here and here. In short, the Port of Long Beach is showing a 15.8% decline in inbound containers September to September, and a 10.8% slowing so far in 2008.
• The amazing lack of visible results of the $750 Billion bailout Bernanke and Paulson engineered. The problem sucked all that money up in a hurry, didn’t it? Now, there’s talk of another bill.
• Unprecedented demand for Gold, despite the horrible performance of the paper version of the metal, as well as the mining stocks. Try to buy gold coins or bullion. You can’t. Yet the price of the metal is languishing

So, it’s more important than ever to protect yourself and your family. I’m writing a FREE report about how to start the process of doing just that. Click HERE to get it.

The Huge Threat to the US Economy

Jim Jubak says that we’re in a great deal of danger, that the US economy is in a precarious position because of the $5 Trillion Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac debacle.

That he’s right isn’t the point of my mentioning it, that it’s Jim Jubak saying things like this is:

With $5 trillion in financial paper in the markets tied to these two companies, a failure at one or the other would panic the U.S. and every other financial market in the world.

We wouldn’t have to wonder about whether the U.S. economy would slip into a recession because we’d be in one — and looking a depression straight in the eye.

Jubak is extremely smart, experienced and mainstream. He’s not a doom and gloomer, and often debunks these kinds of ideas. Read his article Financial Doom and other Fairy Tales and you’ll see he’s no Chicken Little.

But, in the Fannie/Freddie situation, he’s looking up and seeing something that might fall.